The GDP growth rate of India for Q1 FY27 is 7.8% in real terms, as per the official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). For Q2 FY27, the Finance Ministry's October review has given a nowcast of 7.35%.
These two numbers are not the same kind of thing. The first is an official figure, while the second is an estimate produced by a model and it is not a MoSPI figure.
Real growth is the headline number that most reports quote. It measures the increase in the value of goods and services after the effect of price changes has been removed, so individuals reading a single figure in a newspaper are usually reading this one.
A new base year after fifteen years
The base year is the period whose prices are used to measure real growth, so a change in it changes how every later figure is calculated. On 27 February 2026, MoSPI released the new series of annual and quarterly national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year. It replaced 2011-12, which had been in use since the previous revision in 2015.
The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics recommended 2022-23 as the new base year after detailed discussions. MoSPI aims to revise the base year about every five years, in line with international recommendations.
However, this revision came later than that schedule. As per reports, the sharp post-Covid recovery in 2021-22 made that year unsuitable as a base, and the new series was delayed for this reason. Individuals following the data for the past few years were therefore reading growth numbers calculated on a much older set of prices.
What is still pending
One item is yet to be released, and it will decide how the new series can be read by ordinary investors.
- The back series, which will show how the growth figures of earlier years look on the new base.
Until the back series is published, the growth figures calculated on the old base and the new base cannot be compared cleanly. Individuals who place the two sets of numbers side by side are comparing figures built on different sets of prices and different methods.
The nowcast from the Finance Ministry's October review remains an estimate in the same way. It will be replaced by the official figure for that quarter once MoSPI releases its data, which is scheduled for 30 November 2026, and the back series is the next release to be awaited.
