All-India monsoon rainfall ended 12.6% below the long period average (LPA) for June to September 2026, and 17 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions were deficient.
The IMD had also assigned a 60% probability to a deficient monsoon season for the country as a whole. The monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, three days later than its normal date.
Where the rain gap showed up in farming
Kharif sowing stood at 1,086.3 lakh hectares as on 4 September 2026, against 1,104 lakh hectares a year earlier which is a decrease of 1.6%. The gap in sowing is therefore much smaller than the gap in rainfall.
Alongside this, urea sales decreased by 6.6% in April to July 2026. Urea is the fertiliser that farmers apply to most kharif crops, so the sales figure is being followed along with the sowing numbers.
What it means for prices and growth
Food prices are the area where households feel the effect of a weak monsoon most directly and the rating agency ICRA has put a figure on it. As per ICRA, a major agricultural disruption could add about 0.4% to the food inflation measured in the consumer price index (CPI).
The sowing numbers reported so far do not point to a disruption of that size. Families buying vegetables, pulses and cereals will see the effect only if the harvest turns out much lower than the area sown.
However, the 0.4% figure is an estimate for a major disruption and sowing is only 1.6% lower than last year. The final impact on prices and growth will depend on the harvest data that is yet to come.
